Week 40, 2026 (Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026)

Ben Johnson knows exactly how to protect a backup quarterback, and that script starts with quick-hitting touches for D'Andre Swift out of the backfield. Swift operated with a 44 percent route share last Sunday and drew five targets, consistently serving as the safety valve when the pocket collapsed. Vic Fangio coordinates a two-high zone shell specifically engineered to take away explosive vertical passing plays, which inevitably funnels underneath completions directly into the flats. Swift recorded 125 rushing yards against his former team last fall, but his ability in open space as a receiver is where Chicago can exploit Philadelphia's linebackers in coverage. Tyson Bagent relies heavily on checkdowns and quick screens to stay on schedule, targeting running backs on nearly a quarter of his relief and preseason dropbacks. Clearing eleven receiving yards requires just one well-blocked screen or a pair of routine dump-offs in space. Swift should see at least four to five targets in this game plan, comfortably surpassing this modest baseline before the fourth quarter.

Edmonton's high-octane offensive attack steps into the regular season opener facing a completely overhauled Vancouver roster with major defensive vulnerabilities. Tristan Jarry gets the opening assignment in Edmonton's crease despite stumbling through a turbulent campaign last season that yielded an unsightly 3.86 goals-against average and an .857 save percentage. Vancouver counters with Kevin Lankinen while Thatcher Demko remains sidelined, putting a netminder who surrendered nineteen goals below expected and recorded a 3.70 goals-against mark right into the firing line. Special teams tilt heavily toward a high-scoring outcome, pitting an Edmonton man advantage that led the league at 30.6% against a Vancouver penalty kill that ranked dead last across the NHL at 71.5%. Head coach Kris Knoblauch will feed prime offensive minutes to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against a newly assembled Canucks defense relying heavily on rookie Zeev Buium for primary shutdown duties. Vancouver still retains potent finishing punch through Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, who combined for forty-two points over the final stretch of last season and can punish Edmonton's aggressive defensemen pinching at the blue line.

Colorado at altitude is a brutal matchup for an aging Los Angeles blueline still trying to absorb new systems under Peter Laviolette without Anze Kopitar. The Avalanche completely owned this matchup last season, putting up 4.3 goals per game in the regular season before sweeping the Kings out of the first round of the playoffs by a combined 13–5 margin. Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas drive an elite rush attack that spearheaded the league last season with 3.63 goals per game and 33.7 shots on net per contest. That transition speed will relentlessly test a Kings penalty-killing unit that ranked 30th in the NHL at just 74.6%, matching up terribly against an Avalanche team that locked down opponents with a league-best 84.6% penalty kill. Darcy Kuemper had a rough go last year with an .891 save percentage, whereas Mackenzie Blackwood established firm control in Denver with 23 wins and a sharp 2.51 goals-against average. Backing Colorado in regulation strips away the heavy juice of the standard moneyline while completely bypassing the need for an empty-net cushion.

Rico Dowdle being ruled out clears the runway for Jaylen Warren to handle true bellcow volume on Thursday night. When Dowdle sat out last Sunday, Mike McCarthy handed Warren an overwhelming eighty-nine percent snap share, and the explosive back turned seventeen carries into 127 rushing yards. Warren ranks fourth in the league by averaging 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, making him a nightmare for a Cleveland front that has missed twenty-eight tackles in three games. The Browns are coughing up 120.3 rushing yards per contest and rank in the bottom third of the league in stopping early-down runs. Operating behind an offensive line that created massive running lanes last week, Warren will see steady carries to chew up clock and keep Watson on the sideline. In two career starts where he handled at least fifteen carries, Warren cleared eighty rushing yards both times. Pittsburgh's projected positive game script ensures the carries will not dry up in the fourth quarter. Expect Warren to easily log eighteen or more handoffs, grinding his way past eighty-five yards on the ground in a controlled victory.

These Pacific Division rivals traded punches forty-eight hours ago in an eleven-goal opening shootout, and the defensive habits on both sides guarantee another high-octane affair in Vancouver. Tristan Jarry endured a brutal debut in the Edmonton crease on Tuesday, surrendering six goals on twenty-three shots for a .739 save percentage after coughing up a 3.40 goals-against average last year in Pittsburgh. Vancouver coach Rick Tocchet counters with Kevin Lankinen, who yielded five goals on thirty-seven shots in that same tilt while Thatcher Demko continues to nurse an injury. The special teams matchup heavily tilts toward offensive fireworks, pitting Edmonton's top-ranked power play from last season at 30.6 percent directly against a Vancouver penalty-killing unit that ranked dead last in the NHL at 71.5 percent. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl repeatedly shredded Vancouver's coverage off the rush in game one, while Evan Bouchard enters scorching after delivering a hat trick and five total points from the blueline. Vancouver's forward core answered punch for punch behind Elias Pettersson and Paul Cotter, exploiting Edmonton's aggressive pinching defenseman pairs to generate prime odd-man rushes. Neither netminder has established rebound control or rhythm behind scrambling defenses, setting up an open-ice shootout that flies over the posted total with room to spare.

The market continues to treat Canada Life Centre as an elite defensive fortress, overlooking the reality that the foundation of Winnipeg's defensive structure is currently missing. With Connor Hellebuyck suspended amid an unresolved contract dispute, the Jets are forced to turn to Stuart Skinner, walking straight into a severe goaltending mismatch against a sharp Boston squad. Jeremy Swayman looked completely locked in on opening night, turning away all 24 shots in a 3-0 blanking of New York after posting 33 victories and a .907 save percentage last season. Boston piled up 100 standings points a year ago compared to Winnipeg's 82, and the Bruins' forward depth remains far more versatile across four lines. David Pastrnak dominated puck possession after racking up 39 goals and 71 assists last season, while Morgan Geekie and JJ Peterka consistently generated pressure below the dots. Winnipeg will struggle to break out cleanly against Boston's suffocating neutral-zone structure, leaving Skinner exposed to heavy slot traffic.

This Little Brown Jug battle is built from the ground up to be a classic Big Ten trench war where the clock never stops running. Both Kyle Whittingham and P.J. Fleck want to shorten the afternoon by leaning on heavy ground sequences, milking the play clock down to single digits, and playing field-position football. That conservative approach runs straight into a brick wall because Michigan's defensive front is suffocating, allowing just 14.8 points per game and an absurd 4.0 yards per play. With edge rushers John Henry Daley and Troy Bowles constantly generating pressure after racking up 18 quarterback hits on the season, Drake Lindsey simply will not get the clean pocket he needs to push the ball downfield. Weather at Huntington Bank Stadium is going to strangle the passing games even further, with sustained 15 mph winds and gusts reaching 24 mph making deep shots a total gamble. On the other side, Minnesota has been stout in Minneapolis, holding two of their three home opponents to seven points while locking down third downs inside their own territory. It is no accident that the under has cashed in seven of the Golden Gophers' last eight home games when the weather cools off and conference games tighten up. Expect long, methodical drives that stall out into field goal attempts on both ends, grinding out a defensive slugfest that finishes well short of the number in a 23-16 final.

This is two 40-point offenses that both want to throw it, and only one of them is interested in slowing the game down. Mississippi State snaps it every 23 seconds, sixth in the country, and has run 73.5 plays a game. Kamario Taylor has 1,192 yards and 14 touchdowns, Fluff Bothwell has 402 rushing yards, and the Bulldogs are scoring 43 a game while giving up 21. Alabama is not built the same way — Keelon Russell’s group is at 29 seconds a snap — but the Tide are still at 48 points a game and 6.9 yards a play, and Russell just threw for 365 and four scores against South Carolina. Davis Wade is outdoors, low-80s, and the wind is about 5 mph, so nothing in the forecast takes the ball out of either quarterback’s hands. Alabama has not lost this series since 2007, but Starkville just beat Missouri 31-24 and is not going to sit in. Expect Taylor to keep the chains moving, Russell to answer, and both teams to be in the 30s.

Laying two touchdowns at Kinnick against a top-five scoring defense is the margin the market has wrong. Iowa is 4-0 and allowing 10.7 points a game, fourth in the country, and the Hawkeyes are also fifth in FBS at 6.53 yards per carry, with Kamari Moulton, Braden Jackson, Xavier Williams and Nathan McNeil all already over 100 yards. Ohio State scores 45 a game and allows 12.3, so the Buckeyes are the better team, but the run game is still the question and right tackle Phillip Daniels is out for a third straight week. A 15-mph wind and a 45.5 total say this is a shortened, lower-possession afternoon, not a track meet. Ohio State's last trip to Iowa City, in 2017, was a loss. Julian Sayin will move the ball, and Iowa will not steal this, but a defense that has not given up 11 a game does not need a miracle to stay inside two scores. Expect the Hawkeyes to lean on the run, drain clock, and make the backdoor the live path.

Buffalo is the clean leg. The Bills are 3-0 and scoring 33.7 a game, best in the league, at home against a Patriots team at 12.0, worst in the league. New England is also without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, so Josh Allen is throwing at a secondary that is already short. New England's defense can hang around for a quarter. A team that cannot score does not win this game. The total is the price leg. Baker Mayfield had thumb surgery and is out, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start after going 0-for-3 with an interception in relief. Green Bay cannot run: 48.7 yards a game, fewest in the league, and 17 against Atlanta. Tampa is 0-3. The main number on this game is 37.5 to 38.5, so 44.5 is asking a broken run game and a first-time starter to hang 45. Expect Buffalo to pull away after halftime, and Tampa-Green Bay to finish in the twenties.

This is the back the game script wants, against a front that cannot stop him. Cook already has 58 carries for 346 yards, six a pop, and the last two weeks were not close: 21 for 135 against Detroit and 24 for 154 against the Chargers. The only miss was Week 1 in Houston, 13 for 57 in a shootout Buffalo had to throw. New England is bottom-five against the run and Christian Barmore is out, so the interior is thinner than the one that gave up 107 to him the last time these teams met. Buffalo is a touchdown favorite in a 50.5 game, which is the script that hands the ball to Cook in the fourth quarter instead of sitting him. Ray Davis is questionable with a hamstring, so the carries are not getting split. Josh Allen will steal a short touchdown. He will not steal the yards. Expect Buffalo to play in front, lean on Cook after halftime, and win it by a score

San Francisco enters Levi's Stadium at 3-0 behind Brock Purdy, whose 60.8 expected points added pace all NFL passers through the opening three weeks. Denver sits at 2-1 after erasing a 16-0 halftime deficit against the Rams last week, but Bo Nix now encounters a defense tailored to take away immediate underneath completions. When early runs stall, Denver's protection must manage Nick Bosa and an aggressive pass rush that forces hurried dropbacks in third-and-long situations. Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme counters by deploying Christian McCaffrey between the tackles to control game tempo and dictate favorable defensive personnel groupings. San Francisco maintains superior efficiency metrics inside the red zone and on third-down conversions, whereas Denver's offense remains prone to extended dry spells against disciplined zone coverages.