Kelly calculator.
Stake sizing from your edge. Flat 1u staking — what the tracker uses — is a sane default; Kelly tells you what the math says.
Full Kelly maximizes long-term growth but swings hard; most disciplined bettors use quarter or half Kelly. Garbage in, garbage out: the output is only as good as your probability estimate.
FAQ
What is the Kelly criterion?
A formula for stake sizing that maximizes long-term bankroll growth: f = (bp − q) / b, where b is decimal odds minus 1, p your win probability and q = 1 − p. It bets more when your edge is bigger and nothing when you have none.
Why use half or quarter Kelly?
Full Kelly assumes your probability estimate is exact — it never is. Fractional Kelly gives up a little growth for much smaller drawdowns, which is why most disciplined bettors size at a quarter or half.
What if the result is negative?
A negative Kelly stake means the odds don't cover your estimated probability — no edge, no bet. The discipline to pass is the point.
This tool is maintained by USA Sports Bets Edge — a public betting tracker running since March 2021. Every pick is graded on a public record, wins and losses. See the live record or browse the weekly recaps.