Why we took it
Everybody wants to bet overs when Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are coming off back-to-back thirty-point eruptions, but walking into Seattle against Mike Macdonald's defense is a completely different sport. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 144.4 passing yards per game and 4.2 yards per play, and not a single quarterback has thrown for even 190 yards against them all season. Just eight days ago, this unit held Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City to 3 points, 213 total yards, and zero red-zone trips for the first time in Mahomes' 153 career starts. Chicago also lost starting tight end Cole Kmet to a season-ending knee injury on Thursday, stripping Williams of a crucial middle-of-the-field safety valve and inline blocker. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's offense is missing left tackle Charles Cross and deep threat Rashid Shaheed, and they convert a dismal 50.0% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. Meanwhile, Dennis Allen's Bears defense ranks fourth in the NFL against the run at 87.6 yards per game, No. 1 on third downs at 26.1%, and just injected three-time All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons into the interior. When these two franchises met in December 2024, Seattle walked out with a 6-3 win that featured zero touchdowns and thirteen combined punts. Expect a physical, clock-grinding battle between the twenties where red-zone stalls and elite pass coverage keep the final score around 23-20 Seattle.