Why we took it
A one-point market dip over a quarterback change has created a prime opportunity to back the most dominant defense in college football against a reeling Lincoln Riley squad. With Julian Sayin sidelined after 21 consecutive starts, Ryan Day has had a full bye week to tailor the game plan for true freshman Luke Fahey, who simply needs to lean on the ground game and distribute the ball to Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith. Fahey could not ask for a softer landing spot than a USC defense that allows 25.0 points per game overall and 28.8 points per game in Big Ten play. The Trojans sit outside the top 100 nationally in both expected points added per dropback and per rush, while ranking 78th in run defense and 114th in tackling. On the other side of the ball, coordinator Matt Patricia's defense surrenders just 13.4 points per game—second-best in the country—and now feasts on a Trojan offense that just imploded at Wisconsin. In that 24-7 defeat in Madison, quarterback Jayden Maiava was sacked five times and threw interceptions on consecutive first-quarter possessions as USC was held to 241 total yards, its lowest output in Riley's five seasons. Day's program is 14-7 against the spread and 18-3 straight up coming off a bye week since 2019, whereas USC is a dismal 2-6 against the number this fall with a brutal trip to Indiana looming next week. Expect Ohio State's defensive front to collapse the pocket on Maiava early, handing Fahey short fields as the Buckeyes grind out a double-digit road victory.