Why we took it
Brian Schottenheimer has this Dallas passing game firing on all cylinders, turning AT&T Stadium into an absolute house of horrors for visiting secondaries. Dak Prescott enters Thursday night playing some of the cleanest football of his career, completing seventy percent of his throws while leading an attack that generates a stellar 0.23 expected points added per play. Tampa Bay limps into town on three days of rest without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. patrolling the deep middle or top perimeter corner Benjamin Morrison available to challenge releases. Todd Bowles loves to dial up pressure and sends blitz packages on 40.4 percent of dropbacks, but that aggression is going to backfire spectacularly against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens without elite safety help over the top. Dallas has torched recent opponents for 37, 31, and 34 points over the last three weeks, maintaining an eight percent pass rate over expectation even with second-half leads. Even if Tampa Bay’s stout interior front manages to plug between-the-tackles runs, Prescott will slice through single-high coverages once the Cowboys enter the red zone. History also leans heavily toward Dallas in Arlington, where the Cowboys have captured thirteen of fifteen all-time home meetings against Tampa Bay.